Freddie Mac: Speedy Recovery Seems Unlikely in 2012

“Perspectives on the housing market
depend on where you sit,” according to Freddie Mac’s U.S.
Economic and Housing Market Outlook

for January.  The monthly forecast noted
that existing home sales increased in November, the inventory of unsold homes
decreased to a six to seven month supply, and Freddie Mac’s economists predict
home sales will grow between 2 and 5 percent in 2012. 

But
there is “a historically large gap between sentiments of buyers and sellers.”  Nearly 80 percent of American households
believe it is a good time to buy a home, but sellers are not as happy, with
only 7.6 percent who responded to a Mortgage Bankers Association survey
believing that it is a good time to sell. 
If this gap doesn’t narrow, Freddie Mac’s economists say, the
housing-market recovery will be delayed.

The monthly report titled Toasting the New Year with a Glass Half Full
concludes that, while the economy is undoubtedly in a better place that the
same time a year ago, a speedy recovery still seems unlikely this year. 

Other highlights of the Outlook

  • Economic growth will likely
    strengthen to about 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
  • The current U.S. unemployment rate
    of 8.5 percent is likely to increase after seasonal gains are reversed.
  • Mortgage rates are projected to
    remain very low, at least in the beginning of 2012.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac, vice
president and chief economist said, “With the new year comes a sense of
cautious optimism. There are some positive signs in the job market and consumer
confidence; housing is starting to raise hopes for continued gradual economic
recovery. But the economy still is giving some mixed messages.”

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HUD EXPANDS JOB AND CONTRACTING OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW-INCOME INDIVIDUALS AND THE BUSINESSES THAT HIRE THEM

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today announced that it is launching a Section 3 Business Registry pilot program in Washington, D.C. that will expand job opportunities for low-income people and public housing residents by maintaining a registry of businesses that currently hire them. Additionally, HUD will implement the pilot program in New Orleans, Detroit, Los Angeles and Miami, to give contracting agencies and low-income residents a single source of information to find eligible Section 3 businesses and job opportunities.

HUD AWARDS $6.8 MILLION TO HELP LOCAL COMMUNITIES UNDERSTAND THE SCALE OF HOMELESSNESS IN THEIR AREAS

WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development today awarded $6.8 million to help local communities across this country to assess the nature and scope of their homeless challenge as part of a broader Administration goal of preventing and ending homelessness. The technical assistance grants awarded today will ultimately help state and local planning organizations or ‘continuums of care’ to improve data collection and reporting that is a critical part of designing their responses to homelessness.

FDIC Invites Comments on Stress Test Rules

The Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation (FDIC) has issued a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPR) for
comment.  The NPR would require the
larger of the banks it regulates to conduct annual capital-adequacy stress
tests.  The tests are one requirement of
the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act and will affect FDIC-insured banks and
savings institutions with assets of more than $10 billion.  The FDIC currently has 23 financial
institutions meeting that criterion

The proposed rule focuses on capital
adequacy and defines a stress test as a process to assess the potential impact
on the bank of economic and financial conditions (“scenarios”) on the
consolidated earnings, losses, and capital of the covered bank over a set
planning horizon.  FDIC said that these
stress tests would be one component of the broader stress testing activities
conducted by the banks which should address the impact of a broad range of
potentially negative outcomes across a broad set of risk types with impacts
beyond capital adequacy along.  These,
however, are beyond the scope of the proposed rule.

Under the NPR each covered bank
would be required to conduct the test annually using the bank’s financial data
as of September 30 of that year.  Where
the parent company structure of the covered bank includes one or more financial
companies, each with assets greater than the $10 billion threshold, the stress
test requirement applies to the parent and to each subsidiary meeting the threshold,
however the FDIC will coordinate with other regulatory agencies to minimize
complexity or duplication of effort.

As proposed, FDIC would provide each
covered bank with a minimum of three sets of scenarios representing baseline,
adverse, and severely adverse economic and financial conditions and each bank would
use these scenarios to calculate the impact on its potential losses,
pre-provision revenues, loan loss reserves and pro forma capital positions for each quarter end within the
planning horizon.

The NPR also describes the content
of the reports institutions are required to publish, and the timeline for
conducting the stress tests and producing the required reports.

FDIC Acting Chairman Martin J.
Gruenberg said, “Both the FDIC and the institutions being tested will
benefit from the forward-looking results that the stress tests will provide.
The results will assist in ensuring an institution’s financial stability by
helping determine whether it has sufficient capital levels to withstand a
period of economic stress.”

The FDIC’s proposal will be
published in the Federal Register with a 60-day public comment period.

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First Round of Pilot Rental Initiative Completed with 2,500 Homes Sold

The first round of winners has been
selected to purchase foreclosed real estate from Freddie Mac and Fannie
Mae.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) announced today that 2,500 single family homes had been awarded to successful
bidders under a pilot initiative to convert real estate acquired by the two
government sponsored enterprises (GSE) through foreclosure into rental property. 

Successful candidates for purchasing properties
from the GSE’s real estate portfolio (REO) had undergone several steps in a
qualification process before being permitted to bid on the houses which they had
to agree to hold and rent for a period of time before reselling. 

The properties were offered in sale
pools which were geographically concentrated in various locations across the
United States.  The GSEs, FHFA and other federal
agencies involved, Departments of Treasury, Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Reserve, had several
goals
for the program.  They hoped to
relieve the GSEs of the costs and administrative burdens of managing thousands
of foreclosed properties, alleviate the blight imposed on communities by large
number of vacant and possibly deteriorating properties, increase the rental
stock, while at the same time not flooding the market with distressed
properties.

 FHFA described the response to the pilot
initiative as “robust with strong qualified bidder interest.”  Some 4,000 responses were received to the
initial “Request for Information” issued by the program sponsors last February,
however beyond announcing that the awards had been made FHFA released no
information on the names or even the numbers of successful bidders.

“FHFA
undertook this initiative to help stabilize communities and home values in
areas hard-hit by the foreclosure crisis,” said Edward J. DeMarco, Acting
Director of FHFA. “As conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we believe
this pilot program will assist us in achieving our objectives and help to
maximize the benefit to taxpayers. We are pleased with the response from the
market and look forward to closing transactions in the near future.”

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