December Housing Starts and Permits Figures Sag

Building permits and housing starts in
December were both below levels reported in November ‘according to data
released this morning by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
and the Census Bureau.  Both statistics
were, however, well above the levels one year earlier.

Building permits for privately owned
housing units were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000, 0.1 percent
below the revised November rate of 680,000. 
Permitting activity was 7.8 percent higher than in December 2010 when
the pace of permits was 630,000.  The
November figure was revised downward from the 681,000 originally reported.

Permits were issued for single-family
houses at the rate of 444,000, up 1.8 percent from the 436,000 reported in
November.  Multi-family authorizations
(permits in buildings with five or more units) were at a rate of 209,000
compared to 223,000 in November.

The report estimates that there were 611,900
housing units issued during the whole of 2011, a 1.2 percent increase over the
604,600 issued in 2010.

On a regional basis, permitting
increased month-over-month in the Midwest by 5.8 percent and was up 13.4
percent on an annual basis.  Permits in
the West were unchanged from November and down 1.2 percent year-over-year.   Permitting fell 6.5 percent in the Northeast
and was 36.8 percent below that of one year ago while the South had a
fractional -0.6 percent change since November but permitting was still up 31.1
percent for the year.

Building Permits

Click Here to View the Housing Permits Chart

Privately-owned housing starts in
December were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 657,000, 4.1 percent below the
revised November estimate of 685,000 but a 24.9 percent increase from the
December 2010 rate of 526,000.  
Single-family starts were at a rate of 470,000, up 4.4 percent from the
previous month’s pace of 450,000 and 11.6 percent higher than in December 2010. 

There were an estimated 606,900 housing
units for which construction was started in 2011 compared to 586,900 in
2010.  This is an increase of 3.4
percent.

There were strong regional differences
in housing starts.  The Midwest saw a
jump of 54.8 percent in housing starts since November and a year-over-year
increase of 121.5 percent.  The other
regions did not fare nearly as well.  The
Northeast was down 41.2 percent for the month and 1.7 percent since December
2010.  The change in the South was -3.0
percent for the month and 19.0 percent for the year, and the West was down
-17.6 percent since November but up 1.5 percent annually.

Housing Starts

Click Here to View the Housing Starts Chart

Housing completions in December were at
a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 605,000, up 9.2 percent from the upwardly revised
(from 542,000) November figure of 554,000. 
Single family completions were at a rate of 448,000, a -0.9 percent monthly
change.

An estimated 583,900 housing units were
completed during 2011, 10.4 percent below the 2010 figure of 651,700.  At year’s end there were an estimated 78,800
permits that had been issued but for which work had not yet been started.  More than half of these permits (43,100) were
in the South.

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Freddie Mac: Speedy Recovery Seems Unlikely in 2012

“Perspectives on the housing market
depend on where you sit,” according to Freddie Mac’s U.S.
Economic and Housing Market Outlook

for January.  The monthly forecast noted
that existing home sales increased in November, the inventory of unsold homes
decreased to a six to seven month supply, and Freddie Mac’s economists predict
home sales will grow between 2 and 5 percent in 2012. 

But
there is “a historically large gap between sentiments of buyers and sellers.”  Nearly 80 percent of American households
believe it is a good time to buy a home, but sellers are not as happy, with
only 7.6 percent who responded to a Mortgage Bankers Association survey
believing that it is a good time to sell. 
If this gap doesn’t narrow, Freddie Mac’s economists say, the
housing-market recovery will be delayed.

The monthly report titled Toasting the New Year with a Glass Half Full
concludes that, while the economy is undoubtedly in a better place that the
same time a year ago, a speedy recovery still seems unlikely this year. 

Other highlights of the Outlook

  • Economic growth will likely
    strengthen to about 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
  • The current U.S. unemployment rate
    of 8.5 percent is likely to increase after seasonal gains are reversed.
  • Mortgage rates are projected to
    remain very low, at least in the beginning of 2012.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac, vice
president and chief economist said, “With the new year comes a sense of
cautious optimism. There are some positive signs in the job market and consumer
confidence; housing is starting to raise hopes for continued gradual economic
recovery. But the economy still is giving some mixed messages.”

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

First Round of Pilot Rental Initiative Completed with 2,500 Homes Sold

The first round of winners has been
selected to purchase foreclosed real estate from Freddie Mac and Fannie
Mae.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency
(FHFA) announced today that 2,500 single family homes had been awarded to successful
bidders under a pilot initiative to convert real estate acquired by the two
government sponsored enterprises (GSE) through foreclosure into rental property. 

Successful candidates for purchasing properties
from the GSE’s real estate portfolio (REO) had undergone several steps in a
qualification process before being permitted to bid on the houses which they had
to agree to hold and rent for a period of time before reselling. 

The properties were offered in sale
pools which were geographically concentrated in various locations across the
United States.  The GSEs, FHFA and other federal
agencies involved, Departments of Treasury, Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Reserve, had several
goals
for the program.  They hoped to
relieve the GSEs of the costs and administrative burdens of managing thousands
of foreclosed properties, alleviate the blight imposed on communities by large
number of vacant and possibly deteriorating properties, increase the rental
stock, while at the same time not flooding the market with distressed
properties.

 FHFA described the response to the pilot
initiative as “robust with strong qualified bidder interest.”  Some 4,000 responses were received to the
initial “Request for Information” issued by the program sponsors last February,
however beyond announcing that the awards had been made FHFA released no
information on the names or even the numbers of successful bidders.

“FHFA
undertook this initiative to help stabilize communities and home values in
areas hard-hit by the foreclosure crisis,” said Edward J. DeMarco, Acting
Director of FHFA. “As conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we believe
this pilot program will assist us in achieving our objectives and help to
maximize the benefit to taxpayers. We are pleased with the response from the
market and look forward to closing transactions in the near future.”

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Congress Hears Different Views on Appraisal Regulation

Among those testifying at a hearing of the House Committee on Financial Oversight’s subcommittee on
Insurance, Housing, and Community Opportunity were William B.
Shear
, director, Financial Markets and Community Investment, Government
Accountability Office (GAO) and Sara
W. Stephens, president of the Appraisal Institute.  Shear restated GAO’s earlier recommendations
that federal regulators set minimum standards for registering Appraisal
Management Companies (AMC)
before a hearing on
Thursday while Stephens countered
that non-congressionally mandated regulations are threatening to hamstring and jeopardize the real estate appraisal
profession altogether.

Shear presented results of a GAO
study on appraisal oversight which confirmed that appraisals remain the most
popular form of property valuation used by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae (the GSEs) and
major lenders.  While other valuation
methods such as broker opinions and automatic valuation models (AVM) are
quicker and less expensive, they are also considered less reliable and are not
generally used for loan originations.   While GAO did not capture data on the
prevalence of approaches used to perform appraisals, the sales comparison
approach is required by the GSEs and FHA and is reportedly used in nearly all
appraisals.

Charges of conflict of interest have
changed the ways in which appraisers are selected and raised concerns about the
oversight of AMCs which often manage appraisals for lenders, GAO said.  The Dodd-Frank Act reinforced earlier
requirements and guidance about selecting appraisers and prohibiting coercion
and this has encouraged more lenders to turn to AMCs.  This in turn has raised questions about the
oversight of these firms and their impact on appraisal quality.

Federal regulators and the
enterprises said they hold lenders responsible for ensuring that AMCs’ policies
and practices meet their requirements but that they generally do not directly
examine AMCs’ operations.  Some industry
participants voiced concerns that some AMCs may prioritize low costs and speed
over quality and competence. The Dodd-Frank Act requires state appraiser
licensing boards to supervise AMCs and requires other federal regulators to
establish minimum standards for states to apply in registering them. Setting
minimum standards that address key functions AMCs perform on behalf of lenders
could provide greater assurance of the quality of the appraisals those AMCs
provide GAO said, but as of June 2012, federal regulators had not completed
rulemaking for such standards.

The Appraisal Subcommittee (ASC)
established in 1989 by the Title XI of the Financial Institutions Reform,
Recover, and Enforcement Act (FIRREA) has been monitoring the appraisal function
but its effectiveness has been limited by several weaknesses which include failing
to both define the criteria it uses to assess state compliance with Title XI and
the scope of its role in monitoring the appraisal requirements of federal
banking regulators.

ASC also lacks specific policies for
determining whether activities of the Appraisal Foundation (a private nonprofit
organization that sets criteria for appraisals and appraisers) that are funded
by ASC grants are Title XI-related. Not having appropriate policies and
procedures is inconsistent with federal internal control standards that are
designed to promote the effectiveness and efficiency of federal activities.

Appraisals and other types of real
estate valuations have come under increased scrutiny following the mortgage
crisis
and Dodd-Frank codified several requirements for the independence of
appraisers and expanded the role of ASC. 
It also directed GAO to conduct two studies which were the source of Shear’s
testimony before the committee.

GAO recommends that federal
regulators consider key AMC functions in rulemaking to set minimum standards
for registering AMCs, that ASC clarify the criteria it uses to assess states’
compliance with Title XI of FIRREA and develop specific policies and procedures
for monitoring the federal banking regulators and the Appraisal Foundation.  ASC and regulators are either taking steps to
implement these recommendations or considering doing so.

Although she was not speaking directly
to the GAO report, Stephens in a written statement told committee members that,
although appraising is the most heavily regulated activity within the mortgage
and real estate sectors
, regulatory agencies are planning to enact further
changes that would threaten to tie the hands of appraisers, curtail innovation
and increase regulatory burdens on appraisers and financial institutions.

Stephens was testifying directly
against The Appraisal Foundation’s creation of a new Appraisal Practices Board
delving into appraisal practice matters without Congressional authorization.
The Foundation does not have authority to codify appraisal methods and
techniques, she said, and called it a dangerous and unjustified move.  “The regulatory burden for appraisers is on
the cusp of being expanded exponentially.”

“Appraisal methods and techniques
require judgment by the appraiser. It is assumed that the appraiser has
been thoroughly trained to judge appropriate situations. The choice of methods
and techniques are the responsibility of the appraiser in the development of
his/her scope of work” she said. For instance, whether to use reproduction cost
or replacement cost or when and how to adjust for sales concessions are
dependent on the actions of the marketplace and should not be mandated by a
body such as the Appraisal Practices Board. Hard “rules of thumb” do not work
within valuation because there always is an exception to the rule, she said.

The Appraisal Institute offered a
long list of recommendations
to Congress including that they:

  • realign the appraisal regulatory
    structure with those of other industries in the real estate and mortgage
    sectors
  • Protect the independence of the
    appraisal standards-setting process and require that standards for federally
    related transactions be issued by an entity that does not develop or offer
    education for appraisers.
  • Establish limitations around the
    Appraisal Practices Board specifying that no tax dollars be used to fund the
    venture, voluntary guidance be truly voluntary, and meaningful oversight over
    the de facto regulatory action of the Foundation be established.
  • Reiterate that the Foundation does
    not have legislative authorization in the area of “methods and techniques” and
    “appraiser education.”
  • Authorize the GSEs and other agencies
    to halt purchase or guarantees of loans in states that maintain deficient
    appraiser regulatory regimes and ensure that ongoing federal support for the
    GSEs or any replacement maintains consistent appraisal rules.

The Institute said states should be restricted from
codifying voluntary guidance into state law or regulation and the Appraisal
Standards Board prohibited from specifically
referencing its works within the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal
Practice and laws should be established to empower state boards to investigate
and prosecute complaints involving appraisers.

…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.