Investor Cash Adding Downward Pressure on Home Prices

Cash buyers, principally investors, may
be putting downward pressure on home prices according to the Campbell/Inside
Mortgage Finance Housing Pulse Tracking Survey released Monday.  The survey found that investors with cash in
hand are able to offer something that homeowners dependent on mortgage
financing cannot, a guaranteed sale with a quick closing timeline.  This seems to offset the desirability of a
higher bid with a mortgage contingency.   

The
Housing Pulse survey found that the trade-off between price and speed is
particularly true with offers on distressed properties because the lenders and
servicers liquidating the properties generally prefer transactions that can
settle within 30 days.  The Campbell
report states, “While investor bids may not be the
first offers accepted, they often end up winning properties after other
homebuyers are eliminated because of mortgage approval or timeline problems.
Appraisals below the contracted price are a common reason for mortgage denials.
Most mortgage financing timelines are now in excess of 30 days.”

The
survey reports that 33.2 percent of home buyers in December were cash buyers,
up from 29.6 percent in December 2010. 
However, 74 percent of investors came to the table with cash.  This is especially striking as the survey
found that investors accounted for 22.8 percent of home purchases in December,
changed only slightly from 22.2 percent in November.  But, Campbell says, “Despite their relatively
small share among homebuyers, investors have an outsize effect on home prices because
their bids bring down market prices.”

Real estate agents responding to the
survey commented on the low bids they are seeing from investors.  Campbell quoted anecdotal information from a
few agents indicating they are seeing investor bids 10-20 percent below list
prices, but with quick closings.

The total share of distressed properties
in the housing market in December continued at a three-month moving average of
47.2 percent, the 24th consecutive month that the HousePulse
Distressed Property Index (DPI) was over 40 percent.

The Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance
HousingPulse Tracking Survey involves approximately 2,500 real estate agents
nationwide each month and provides up-to-date intelligence on home sales and
mortgage usage patterns.

…(read more)

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China Sees Drop in Property Prices

Property prices in 70 Chinese cities fell in December from the previous month, marking the third straight decline after developers cut prices to boost sales amid Beijing’s campaign to cool the property market.

Appraisers say "Don’t Blame the Messenger" for Low Home Prices

The
Appraisal Institute has apparently had enough and has decided to fight back
against what it perceives as unwarranted blame for depressed home prices.  In a press release the Institute says, ” Don’t blame the real estate appraiser if it turns out that
house you’re trying to sell or buy isn’t worth what you thought it was.”

Speaking for the Institute, its
president Sara W. Stephens, MAI said that real estate agents, homebuilders and
others have placed blame for the market’s distressed condition on appraisers
who produce opinions of value that don’t match a home’s listing, contract or
sales price, delaying a recovery in the housing market and called that
accusation “nonsense.”

“The fact is that appraisers are
undertaking the same thorough research and thoughtful analysis that they always
have in order to continue producing reliable, credible opinions of value,”
Stephens said. “Don’t shoot the messenger.”

It is unclear why the Institute
decided to refute the claims about appraisers at this time.  We did a search and found a number of
articles with the blame appraisers theme, but none that were more recent than
last summer except for charges from the National Association of Realtors that low
appraisals are among the reasons for recent high levels of sales contract
cancellations.  NAR, however, has been complaining
about low appraisals since at least the spring of 2009. 

Noting that buyers and sellers often
have emotional value attached to a home or are unaware of the market, Stephens
pointed out that appraisals completed for mortgage transactions are used to
assist lenders, who are the clients, not buyers or sellers, in making lending
decisions – and are not intended to confirm a listing, contract or sales price.
There’s no reason to assume the contract price is the “correct” price simply
because it’s higher than the appraisal, she said.

As to the claim that appraisers are
using distressed sales as comps for market rate properties, Stevens said that
qualified appraisers know how to handle adjustments for distressed properties
and added that in some markets, distressed sales are so prevalent that it would
be improper not to use them as comparables.

The Institute also released two
handouts.  The first explains the process
of conducting an appraisal
in a declining market and includes a discussion of
how an appraiser discounts a distressed comp. The second handout attempts to
explain what an appraisers job really is, making the points that:

  • Appraisals aren’t intended to confirm a home’s sales
    price.
  • Appraisers don’t set the real estate market; they
    reflect what’s happening in the market.
  • Appraisers work not for buyers or sellers, but for
    lenders.
  • Appraisers are independent, third-party experts with
    no motive to be biased.
  • Appraisals sometimes are assigned to the least
    qualified, least competent appraisers, but especially in a distressed market,
    competent and qualified appraisers – such as designated members of the
    Appraisal Institute – should be hired for difficult assignments.
  • Appraisers know how to use distressed sales as
    comparables.

…(read more)

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Credit Defaults Increase, Led by Mortgage Markets

Bank cards were the only type of
consumer debt to see a decline in defaults during December according to data
released today by S&P Indices and Experian. 
The S&P Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices showed increased
defaults in both first and second mortgages and in auto loans.  Driven primarily by the increase in mortgage
defaults, the national composite index rose from 2.22 percent in November to
2.24 percent in December, the highest rate since April of 2011.  In December 2010 the Index stood at 3.01
percent.

The default rate for second mortgages increased
from 1.26 percent to 1.33 percent, auto loan defaults rose to 1.27 percent from
1.17 percent and first mortgage defaults increased to 2.19 percent from 2.17
percent.  The default rate for bank cards
however dropped from 4.91 percent to 4.60 percent.  All rates have improved from those of one
year earlier when the default rate for second mortgages was 1.74 percent; first
mortgages, 2.93 percent; auto loans, 1.69 percent; and bank cards, 6.73
percent.

“Led by the
mortgage markets, the second half of 2011 saw a slight reversal of the two-year
downward trend in consumer credit default rates,” says David M. Blitzer,
Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Indices.
“First mortgage default rates rose for the fourth consecutive month, as did the
composite. Since August, first mortgage default rates have risen from 1.92% to
the 2.19%. The composite also rose those months, from 2.04% to 2.24%.  The
recent weakness seen in home prices is reflected in these data.  Bank card
default rates, on the other hand, were favorable, falling to 4.6% in December.
This is more than a full percentage point below the 5.64% we saw as recently as
July 2011.

S&P Experian data highlighted
five Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). 
Three of the five showed increases in default rates for the month: Miami
increased from 4.47 percent to 4.73 percent; Dallas from 1.38 percent to 1.56
percent, and Los Angeles to 2.54 percent from 2.53 percent.  Chicago was unchanged at 2.84 percent and New
York decreased from 2.21 percent n November to 2.13 percent in December. 

Blitzer said
of the MSA data, “Given what we know about the mortgage markets, it is likely
that these cities are seeing this recent weakness because their housing markets
have still not stabilized.”


 

…(read more)

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Rents keep rising

As if record low mortgage rates and beaten down home prices weren’t enough to get prospective home buyers off the fence, there’s another factor that has made the case for buying even stronger: rising rents.