CoreLogic: Home Prices Show Third Consecutive Monthly Increase

Home prices were up for the third
consecutive month
in May as measured by CoreLogic’s Home Price Index
(HPI.)  The three months of increases were
noted for both annual and month-over-month numbers.

The HPI increased by 1.8 percent
compared to April figures and was 2.0 percent higher in May 2012 than in May
2011.  Those numbers are for all home
sales including those of distressed homes, both short sales and real estate
owned (REO) transactions.

When distressed sales are removed from
the calculation home prices were up year-over-year by 2.7 percent and were 2.3
percent higher in May than in April. 
This is the fourth consecutive month-over-month increase.

CoreLogic’s forward-looking Pending HPI
which is based on Multiple Listing Service data measuring price changes in the
most recent month indicates that house prices, including distressed sales, will
rise by at least 1.4 percent from May to June and by 2.0 percent if distressed
sales are not included.

“The recent upward trend in
U.S. home prices is an encouraging signal that we may be seeing a bottoming of
the housing down cycle,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and chief
executive officer of CoreLogic. “Tighter inventory is contributing to
broad, but modest, price gains nationwide and more significant gains in the
harder-hit markets, like Phoenix.”

“Home price appreciation in the
lower-priced segment of the market is rebounding more quickly than in the upper
end,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Home prices
below 75 percent of the national median increased 5.7 percent from a year ago,
compared to only a 1.8 percent increase for prices 125 percent or more of the
median.”

Since home prices peaked in April
2006 the national HPI including all sales has fallen 30.1 percent and non-distressed
sale prices are down 22.2 percent.

The highest price appreciation
including distressed sales was seen in Arizona (12.0 percent), Idaho (9.2
percent) and South Dakota (8.7 percent). 
When distressed sales are excluded the greatest appreciation was noted
in Montana (9.1 percent), South Dakota (8.5 percent), and Arizona (7.3
percent).

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Shadow Inventory Drops to 4-month Supply

Lenders
appear to be getting a grip on the nation’s foreclosure inventory according to a
report released Thursday by CoreLogic. 
The foreclosure or “shadow” inventory represents the number of
properties that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or owned by mortgage
servicers and lenders (REO) but not currently listed for sale on a multiple
listing service.   

The
inventory fell to 1.5 million units in April, a four month supply at the
current rate of attrition.  This is approximately
the same level that existed in October 2008 and a decrease of 14.8 percent from
April 2011 when there were 1.8 million units in inventory or a six-month
supply.  Shadow
inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory
and the current figure represents just over half of the 2.8 million properties
currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or REO. 

The dollar volume of shadow
inventory was $246 billion as of April 2012, down from $270 billion a year ago
and a three-year low.

The flow
of new loans that are seriously delinquent
, that is 90 days or more, into the
shadow inventory has now been approximately offset by the equal volume of
distressed property sales including both sales of REO and pre-foreclosure or
short sales.

Of the 1.5 million properties currently
in the shadow inventory, 720,000 units are seriously delinquent (two months’
supply), 410,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.1-months’ supply) and
390,000 are already in REO (1.1-months’ supply).  The foreclosure inventory does not include
loans that are not yet seriously delinquent but may become so. 

“Since peaking at 2.1 million
units in January 2010, the shadow inventory has fallen by 28 percent. The
decline in the shadow inventory is a positive development because it removes
some of the downward pressure on house prices,” said Mark Fleming, chief
economist for CoreLogic. “This is one of the reasons why some markets that
were formerly identified as deeply distressed, like Arizona, California and
Nevada, are now experiencing price increases.”

Serious delinquencies, which are the
main driver of the shadow inventory, declined the most in Arizona (-37.0
percent), California (-28.0 percent), Nevada (-27.4 percent), and Michigan
(-23.7 percent.)

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CoreLogic Reports 66,000 Foreclosures in April, Down 15.4% YoY

CoreLogic is reporting that foreclosures last month totaled 66,000, down 12,000 or 15.4 percent from April 2011 but unchanged from March 2012. There have been approximately 3.6 million completed foreclosures in the US since the financial crisis began in September 2008.  That number is for legal actions where the bank took possession of the property and does not include the numbers of homes surrendered through short sales or deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure.

The national foreclosure inventory in April contained 1.4 million homes or 3.4 percent of all homes in the country with a mortgage.  This was unchanged from the previous month but was down .1 million or 0.1 percent from April 2011.  CoreLogic defines foreclosure inventory as the number and share of mortgage homes that have been placed into the process of foreclosure by the mortgage servicer.

 “There were more than 830,000 completed foreclosures over the past year or, in other words, one completed foreclosure for every 622 mortgaged homes,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Non-judicial foreclosure markets, like Nevada, Arizona and California, completed two and a half times as many foreclosures over the past year as judicial foreclosure states.

 “The inventory of homes in foreclosure in judicial foreclosure states is growing, but this increase is being more than offset by declining inventories in non-judicial states where the processing timelines to clear a foreclosure are shorter,” said Anand Nallathambi, chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “Nationally the inventory of homes in foreclosure decreased 0.1% from what it was a year ago at this time, and has leveled off over the first four months of 2012.”

 Completed foreclosures over the last five months were highest in California (142,000), Florida (92,000), and Michigan (60,000).  The highest inventories of pending foreclosures as a percentage of all mortgaged homes were in Florida (12.0 percent), New Jersey (6.7 percent), and Illinois (5.3 percent.)  Nevada, in fourth place at 5.0 percent was the only non-judicial foreclosure state out of the 12 jurisdictions with the highest inventories.

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CoreLogic Home Prices Show First Increase in 10 Months

House prices reflected in CoreLogic’s March Home Price Index which was released today increased on a month-over-month basis for the first time in nearly a year.  The Index which measures home prices including sales of distressed properties increased by 0.6 percent from February, the first such increase since July 2011.  The Index, however, was down the by the identical number from the Index in March 2011.  When distressed sales (short sales and sales of lender-owned properties (REO)) are excluded, the month-over-month number was up for the third consecutive month and was 0.9 percent higher than the corresponding number in March 2011.

The national HPI including distressed sales has decreased 33.7 percent from its peak in April 2006 to present.  When distressed sales are excluded the peak-to-current change in the HPI was -24.5 percent.

“This spring the housing market is responding to an improving balance between real estate supply and demand which is causing stabilization in house prices,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although this has been the case in each of the last two years, the difference this year is that stabilization is occurring without the support of tax credits and in spite of a declining share of REO sales.”

The states with the highest level of appreciation in the Index, including distressed sales, were Wyoming (+5.9 percent), West Virginia (+5.3 percent), and Arizona (+5.1 percent).  When distressed sales are not included the greatest appreciation occurred in Idaho (+5.4 percent) North Dakota (+5.1 percent), and South Carolina (+4.7 percent).

States with the largest decrease including distressed sales were Delaware (-10.6 percent), Illinois (-8.3 percent), and Alabama (-8.0 percent).  Excluding distressed sales the depreciation was greatest in Delaware (-7.6 percent), Alabama (-4.1 percent), and Nevada (-3.9 percent.)

Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas as measured by population 57 had annual declines as of March, eight fewer than in February.

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