Pending Home Sales Decline in December, Remain Above a Year Ago

Pending home sales fell off of the
19-month high reached in November according to figures released on Wednesday by
the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), but were still higher than one
year ago.  NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index
(PHSI) dropped from 100.1 in November to 96.6 in December, a decline of 3.5 percent.  December pending home sales were still 5.6
percent above the December 2010 index of 91.5.

The PHSI is a measure of signed
sales contracts for home purchases where the transaction has not closed.  It is considered a forward indicator as the
sale is usually finalized within one or two months of contract signing.  An index
of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the trend line remains
positive.  “Even with a modest decline, the preceding two months of
contract activity are the highest in the past four years outside of the
homebuyer tax credit period,” he said.  “Contract failures remain an
issue, reported by one-third of Realtors® over the past few months,
but home buyers are not giving up.”

Yun said some
buyers successfully complete the sale after a contract delay, while others stay
in the market after a contract failure and make another offer.  “Housing
affordability conditions are too good to pass up,” he said.  “Our hope is
lending conditions will gradually improve with sustained increases in closed
existing-home sales.”

On a regional
basis results were mixed with three regions showing increases on a year to year
basis but only one increasing during the December.

Pending Home Sales by Region

Region

Index in

December

Chg Nov to
Dec.

(%)

Chg Dec.
2010 to

Dec. 2011
(%)

Northeast

74.7

-3.1

-0.8

Midwest

95.3

+4.0

+13.3

South

101.1

-2.6

+4.9

West

107.9

-11.0

+3.7

U.S.

96.6

-3.5

+5.6

NAR also issued an economic forecast which predicts a healthy growth in
both real and nominal GPD over the next two years with real GDP growing in a historically
normal range of around 3 percent and the unemployment rate falling under 8
percent by 2013. 

Housing starts are expected to improve to around 750,000 in 2012 and
reach a million the next year – both figures well below the historically
typical 1.5 million.  Housing sales, both
new and existing, will remain relatively flat with new home sales reaching a
half million by the end of 2013.  
Existing home sales are estimated to have totaled 4.26 million in 2011
and will rise gradually to 4.45 million and 4.62 million in 2012 and 2013
respectively. 

Inventories are not projected into the future, but the supply of existing
homes is trending down and is now around 2.25 million.  The inventory of new homes has declined to a
nearly negligible level, however given the pace of sales, both inventories
represent about a six month supply.

NAR expects
median prices of both new and existing homes to rise only slightly from current
levels of$223,400 and $166,100 during 2012 but will rise more rapidly during
2013 to a median level of $235,800 and $172,600 by year end.

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Applications Fall 5% during Holiday Shortened Week

Mortgage applications were down during
the week ended January 20 according to the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).  The Market Composite Index, a measure of
application volume fell 5 percent on a basis that was adjusted seasonally and
to account for the week shortened by the Martin Luther King holiday.  On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the
Composite fell 13.8 percent from the previous week which ended January 13.

The
seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was down 5.4 percent and the unadjusted
Purchase Index 9.7 percent.  The latter
was 6.5 percent lower than during the same week in 2011.  The index measuring applications for
refinancing was down 5.2 percent. 

The
four week moving averages for all indices remained positive.  The Composite Index was up 4.12 percent, the
Refinance Index increased 4.85 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index
rose 0.47 percent.

Refinancing
continued to represent the majority of mortgage activity, falling slightly from
82.2 percent of all applications the previous week to 81.3 percent.  Applications for adjustable rate mortgages
were at a 5.3 percent level compared to 5.6 percent a week earlier. 

Looking
back at the month of December, MBA found that refinancing borrowers applied for
30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) in 56.6 percent of cases and 24.3 percent of
applications were for a 15-year FRM.   ARMs represented 5.3 percent of applications in
December.  The
share of refinance applications for “other” fixed-rate mortgages with
amortization schedules other than a 15 or a 30-year term was 13.8 percent of
all refinance applications.

Purchase Index vs 30 Yr Fixed

Click Here to View the Purchase Applications Chart

Refinance Index vs 30 Yr Fixed

Click Here to View the Refinance Applications Chart

The average contract interest rate for 30-year FRMs with
conforming loan balances of $417,500 or less increased to 4.11 percent from
4.06 percent with points down one basis point to 0.47 point.  The effective rate increased from the
previous week.  The rate for jumbo
30-year FRM with balances over $417,500 decreased from 4.40 percent with 0.37
point to 4.39 percent with 0.40 point. 
The effective rate also decreased. 
The rate for FHA-backed 30-year FRM rose to 3.97 percent from 3.91
percent while points were down from 0.59 to 0.57 point.  The effective rate increased.

The
average rate for 15-year FRM increased to 3.40 percent from 3.33
percent, with points increasing to 0.40
from 0.39 and the effective rate increased as well. The rate for the 5/1 hybrid ARM was
up one basis point to 2.91 percent with points decreasing to 0.41l from
0.45.  The effective rate increased.

All
rates quoted are for 80 percent loan-to-value mortgages and points include the
application fee.

 The
MBA survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage
applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents
include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and
value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

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Rental Assistance Demonstration (RAD)

RAD allows projects funded under the Rent Supplement (Rent Supp), Rental Assistance (RAP), and Mod Rehab programs, upon contract expiration or termination, to convert tenant protection vouchers (TPVs) to project-based vouchers (PBVs).

Drop in Refinancing Curtails Application Volume

The Mortgage Composite Index, a measure of loan application
volume, was down 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and 6.6 percent
unadjusted during the week ended June 29 compared to the week ended June
22.  The Mortgage Bankers Association
(MBA) released the Composite and other results of its weekly Mortgage
Applications Survey this morning.

The decrease in mortgage volume was attributed to a drop of
8 percent in the Refinance Index which was in turn driven by a drop in
applications for government-backed refinancing loans.  The share of refinancing applications was 78
percent of all applications, down one percentage point from the previous
week.  Applications for HARP refinancing
which is available only to current Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae borrowers have represented
a quarter of all refinancing applications for the last two weeks.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was up one percent
from the previous week.  The unadjusted
Purchase Index rose only slightly from the previous week and was down 7 percent
from the same week in 2011.  

Purchase Index vs 30 Yr Fixed

Click Here to View the Purchase Applications Chart

Refinance Index vs 30 Yr Fixed

Click Here to View the Refinance Applications Chart

Both the contract interest rate and the effective rate for
all loan types decreased during the week and several rates hit new all time
lows
.   The average contract rate for 30-year fixed
rate mortgages
(FRM) with conforming balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to
3.86 percent with 0.41 point from 3.88 percent with 0.40 percent, the lowest
rate for those loans since MBA began tracking them. 

Jumbo 30-year FRM (balances over $417,500) dropped four
basis points to 4.08 percent with points up to 0.38 from 0.35.  This was the second lowest jumbo loan rate in
MBA’s history.   

FHA-backed 30-year FRM also set a new benchmark low with an
average rate of 3.69 percent with 0.46 point compared to 3.71 percent with 0.46
point.   

Fifteen-year FRMs set a new low at 3.20 percent with 0.47
point.  The rate the previous week was
3.24 percent with 0.44 point.

The average 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate fell to 2.76
percent with 0.45 point, down from 2.81 percent with 0.41 point.  Applications for ARMs represented only 4
percent of all mortgage applications.

All rate quotes are for loans with an 80 percent
loan-to-value ratio and points include the application fee.

The MBA’s weekly survey covers
over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has
been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers,
commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is
March 16, 1990=100.

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Pending Home Sales Rise; NAR Sees Tight Inventory Leading to Price Increases

Pending home sales in May bounced
back to match March numbers which were the highest seen in two years. The
improvement was broad-based, affecting every region in the country according to
the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). 

NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)
rose 5.9 percent in May from 95.5 in April to 101.1, equaling the index level last
March.  This was an increase of 13.3
percent from May 2001 when the index was 89.2. 
The last time the PHSI was higher than the March and May number was in
April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax
credit.

The PHSI is a forward indicator
reflecting signed contracts for home purchases. 
The index does not include closing transactions which are generally
expected to occur within 60 to 90 days.

Lawrence Yun, NAR
chief economist, said longer term comparisons are more relevant.  “The
housing market is clearly superior this year compared with the past four
years.  The latest increase in home contract signings marks 13 consecutive
months of year-over-year gains,” he said.  “Actual closings for
existing-home sales have been notably higher since the beginning of the year
and we’re on track to see a 9 to 10 percent improvement in total sales for
2012.”

The national
median existing-home price is expected to rise 3.0 percent this year and
another 5.7 percent in 2013.

On a regional
basis, May pending sales in the Northeast increased 4.8 percent to 82.9, 19.8
percent above May 2011.  The pending sales number in the Midwest was 98.9
up 6.3 percent from April and 22.1 percent from a year ago.  The index for
the South increased 1.1 percent month over month and 11.9 percent year over
year to an index of 106.9.  In the West
the index jumped 14.5 percent in May to 108.7 and is 4.8 percent stronger than
a year ago.

Yun said that
low inventory could negatively impact some contract activity.  “If credit
conditions returned to normal and if we had more inventory, especially in the
lower price ranges, more people would become successful buyers.  In an
environment of historically favorable housing affordability conditions, it’s
frustrating to see some consumers thwarted in the process,” he said.

The low
inventory in some cases is because of the numbers of homeowners who are unwilling
to list their homes for sale because they are underwater on their mortgages.  Selling underwater homes requires that sellers
either bring cash to the table or undergo a lengthy and often frustrating short
sale process.  NAR estimates 85 percent
of homeowners have positive equity, with 15 percent in an underwater situation.

“Low inventory
can be cured by increasing new home construction,” Yun said.  He projects
housing starts to rise by 26 percent this year and another 50 percent in 2013.  “If housing starts do not rise in a meaningful
way over the next two years due to the difficulty in getting construction
loans, and barring an unexpected shift in the economy, the steady shedding of
inventory could lead to shortages where home prices could get bid up close to
10 percent in 2013,” Yun said.

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